A recent study published in The Lancet Global Health medical journal reveals that over 75,000 Palestinians lost their lives during the initial 15 months of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. This number surpasses the previously reported 49,000 deaths by local health authorities. The study, which underwent peer review, highlights that women, children, and the elderly accounted for approximately 56.2 percent of the casualties in Gaza during that timeframe, aligning closely with data from Gaza’s health ministry.
Conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, led by Khalil Shikaki, a prominent Palestinian pollster, and co-authored by Michael Spagat, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London, this study represents the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip. The research involved interviewing 2,000 Palestinian households over a week starting on December 30, 2024.
The findings suggest that as of January 5, 2025, an estimated 3–4 percent of Gaza’s population had died violently, with additional deaths resulting indirectly from the conflict. Discrepancies in the Gaza death toll have been a point of contention since the onset of Israel’s offensive in October 7, 2023. While Gaza health authorities report over 72,000 fatalities, with potentially more unaccounted for under rubble even 28 months later, Israel has raised concerns about these figures, attributing discrepancies to Hamas’ oversight of the ministry.
The Lancet researchers challenge assertions of inflated numbers and argue that ministry figures may actually be conservative, especially under the extreme circumstances prevailing in Gaza. A previous statistical analysis published in The Lancet’s main journal indicated that the health ministry likely underreported deaths by around 40 percent during the initial nine months of the conflict. The latest research released highlights a similar trend of undercounting.
Field personnel, predominantly female and experienced in conducting surveys, engaged in face-to-face interviews with residents from various districts across Gaza. The questionnaire, reviewed by Reuters, prompted respondents to provide details of individuals within their households who had perished.