Thailand is anticipating a decline in economic growth and tourist numbers this year due to the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on global energy prices, according to a statement from the finance ministry on Tuesday. The projected GDP growth for the country is expected to decrease to 1.6 percent from the previous year’s 2.4 percent.
The growth outlook for the Southeast Asian nation remains weak, with the tourism industry being crucial but still facing challenges in returning to pre-pandemic levels of visitor arrivals. The government had initially forecasted a growth range of 1.5 to 2.5 percent for the year.
Thailand is now expecting approximately 33.5 million foreign tourists in 2026, which is a reduction of about two million from the earlier estimations. The decrease in tourist numbers is particularly notable from European and Middle Eastern countries due to the recent conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a surge in fuel prices.
In March, visitor arrivals from the Middle East decreased by a third compared to the same period last year, with European tourists also declining by around four percent. However, arrivals from other Asian nations saw a modest increase of six percent based on data from the Thai tourism ministry. Thailand had welcomed nearly 33 million foreign visitors in the previous year.
The country’s core inflation is projected to reach three percent in 2026, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 0.3 percent.