After the recent demise of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, several high-ranking US officials express doubt regarding the potential for a regime change in Iran following the US and Israeli military actions against the Islamic Republic. US officials, including President Donald Trump, had indicated before and during the military operation that overthrowing Iran’s oppressive regime was among the objectives, along with dismantling Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.
Despite Trump’s call for Iranian patriots to seize the opportunity to reclaim their country, three US officials familiar with intelligence assessments cast serious doubts on the ability of Iran’s weakened opposition to overthrow the established theocratic and authoritarian government that has been in place since 1979. While none of the officials completely ruled out the possibility of the government’s collapse, they deemed it unlikely or improbable in the foreseeable future.
Recent Central Intelligence Agency reports shared with the White House prior to the military actions suggest that if Khamenei was eliminated, he could potentially be succeeded by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or conservative clerics. The lack of defections within the IRGC during previous anti-government protests in January signals a challenge for any potential revolution, as defections would be crucial for a successful uprising, according to sources familiar with the matter.
President Trump hinted at reopening communications with Iran, indicating a lack of immediate plans for the government’s removal. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced a temporary leadership council in the wake of Khamenei’s death, while security chief Ali Larijani accused the US and Israel of attempting to destabilize Iran and warned against any separatist actions.
US intelligence discussions have also focused on the implications of Khamenei’s potential demise on Iran’s approach to negotiations regarding its nuclear program. There has been significant internal debate among US officials on the impact of Khamenei’s removal on Iran’s stance in dealings with the US, as well as on the country’s missile and nuclear activities.
While conversations with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi had taken place following January’s protests, recent pessimism among senior US officials suggests doubts about any opposition figure backed by the US being able to effectively govern Iran. A former US intelligence official highlighted that the success of any regime change in Iran would hinge on the response of the Iranian people and whether elements of the existing regime would relinquish power peacefully.