Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reportedly targeted in strikes over the weekend by the US and Israel. If confirmed, this event could potentially disrupt the ongoing clerical rule in Iran. The intricate system of governance in Iran, the ideological backing of its supporters, and the influence of its Revolutionary Guards create uncertainty regarding the future course of action.
Iran’s regime operates under the principle of vilayat-e faqih, where power is vested in a senior cleric until the return of the 12th Imam in Shi’ite Muslim belief. The Supreme Leader, currently Khamenei, holds authoritative power over state affairs. However, the recent strikes have raised questions about the succession process and the stability of the ruling system.
Khamenei, aged 86, has not publicly designated a successor, leaving uncertainties about the leadership transition. Potential candidates like his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s grandson, Hassan Khomeini, have been considered. Nonetheless, no successor currently commands the same level of influence as Khamenei, potentially leading to power struggles within key factions like the Revolutionary Guards and clerical councils.
Iran’s clerical elite exert control through institutions like the Assembly of Experts, responsible for appointing the Supreme Leader, and the Guardian Council, which can veto legislation and disqualify candidates. The Revolutionary Guards, directly accountable to the Supreme Leader, play a significant role in Iran’s domestic and international affairs.
The recent targeting of top Guards commanders raises concerns about external intelligence infiltration within the organization. Despite these challenges, the Guards are expected to have a substantial impact on Iran’s future trajectory. The country’s electoral system, though allowing for presidential and parliamentary elections, has faced skepticism due to restrictions imposed by the Guardian Council and past election controversies.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, regarded as a moderate, won the 2024 election against a hardliner. Reports suggest he was also targeted in the recent strikes, adding further uncertainty to the political landscape. The aftermath of these events remains pivotal in shaping Iran’s political future.