On July 11 each year, the global community commemorates World Population Day, reflecting on how demographic patterns influence our lives and futures. The current theme, “Empowering young people to create the families they desire in a just and optimistic world,” is particularly relevant as concerns about declining population numbers rise in light of a demographic landscape where the reproductive choices of young individuals are increasingly pivotal.
As of 2024, the world population has reached 8.2 billion and is estimated to peak at around 10.3 billion by the 2080s before gradually decreasing. However, this growth is decelerating significantly and unevenly. Prior to 2024, populations peaked in 63 countries, with an additional 48 expected to reach their peak between 2025 and 2054. Meanwhile, populations in the remaining 126 countries are projected to continue growing until at least the latter part of the 21st century, or even beyond 2100. More than half of all countries now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1, with some as low as 0.7. Conversely, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, like Bangladesh, are still experiencing growth, albeit at a slower pace.
Notably, nearly 80 percent of global population growth until the mid-21st century will be propelled by population momentum rather than high fertility rates. This momentum stems from a historically large youth population, with 1.8 billion individuals aged 10-24 years, resulting from previous high birth rates and increasing numbers of women reaching reproductive age. These statistics indicate that low fertility rates are less about a diminishing desire to have children and more about unmet needs and structural obstacles that hinder young people from forming families freely and safely.
Bangladesh, with a population of approximately 176 million as of June 2025 according to the UNFPA, is at a crucial phase in the global demographic transition. The fertility rate has decreased from over 6.0 births per woman in the 1970s to about 2.0 in 2024. Life expectancy has surpassed 73 years, and both maternal and child mortality rates have notably decreased. Despite these accomplishments, underlying demographic vulnerabilities often remain masked. While Bangladesh has achieved replacement-level fertility, there is a substantial youth cohort—reflecting the legacy of past high birth rates—that continues to influence its age distribution, with a quarter of the population under 30 years old. In the upcoming years, this demographic group will transition into older age categories, while fewer young individuals enter reproductive age due to declining birth rates.
Consequently, Bangladesh faces the risk of not fully capitalizing on its demographic dividend, which is projected to start diminishing by 2040, leading to a shrinking working-age population. This shift towards an aging populace raises pressing concerns about sustaining economic growth, supporting elderly citizens, and securing future well-being. Although global trends have prompted pronatalist policies, Bangladesh can respond more effectively by investing in and empowering today’s youth to construct a resilient and inclusive future.
Presently, the youth in Bangladesh are more educated, connected, and ambitious than previous generations. However, their decisions regarding family are often influenced or restricted by tradition, poverty, gender norms, and structural inequities. Consequently, they encounter one of three demographic scenarios: opting for lower fertility by choice, delaying or forgoing family establishment due to uncertainty, or entering into early family life under coercion. These intertwined experiences highlight the necessity for a more nuanced, youth-centric approach to population and development policies.
An increasing number of young individuals in Bangladesh, primarily from urban, middle- and upper-income backgrounds, are opting to postpone marriage and parenthood. Many align with the first demographic pattern, prioritizing education and personal or professional aspirations. Access to mobile technology, global media, and digital education has broadened their horizons, especially for females, who increasingly perceive education and careers as central to their identity. These youths enjoy greater reproductive autonomy, although it remains incomplete.
Conversely, a larger segment of Bangladesh’s youth finds themselves in the second demographic reality, delaying or forgoing family formation not by choice but due to gender norms, rigid masculinities, and economic constraints. In Bangladesh, girls’ marriages are closely tied to family honor and security, while boys are expected to achieve financial stability before getting married. However, prevailing socioeconomic conditions often thwart these expectations. Unemployment among highly educated youth remains high, reaching 10 percent in 2024. Those who secure employment often find themselves in low-paying, precarious, or informal jobs, falling short of both personal aspirations and societal standards. Consequently, many delay marriage while seeking secure employment, often delaying until the upper age limit of 32. Even when couples diverge from traditional norms in their marriages, rigid expectations persist. Families, particularly in rural areas, continue to influence decisions regarding timing and number of children, as well as gender preferences. Reproductive choices are frequently influenced by subtle coercion