A recent survey conducted by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM) in partnership with ActionAid Bangladesh has shed light on the perspectives of young individuals regarding employment, education, and the evolving political landscape post-July 2024. Despite the survey’s specific focus, there has been a widespread misunderstanding in the media, particularly regarding the fact that the survey does not provide insights into the voting intentions of the youth.
The survey targeted 2000 individuals aged between 15 to 35, with an equal distribution between urban and rural areas. The male to female ratio in the sample was approximately 54:46. SANEM selected two districts per division and two upazilas per district, totaling 16 districts and 32 upazilas. However, the presentation did not disclose the distribution of samples within these areas. The survey was conducted in person, with every fifth household being included in the sample.
Before delving into the survey’s implications on youth voting behavior, it is crucial to examine SANEM’s methodology. The survey’s scope extends beyond electoral preferences among the youth. Nevertheless, due to media emphasis on this aspect and ensuing misinterpretations, certain key points need clarification.
Firstly, the methodology does not specify whether a ward or a village was chosen as the primary sampling unit (PSU) in the selected upazilas. Understanding the number of households sampled per ward or village is essential due to potential group effects. Secondly, the selection process for the 16 districts and 32 upazilas lacks explanation, raising questions about the potential bias in the political orientation of the chosen areas. A more extensive, nationally representative sample would be necessary to capture the full spectrum of constituencies in a randomized manner. Therefore, clarity on the random or purposive selection of upazilas and the rationale behind it is crucial.
Additionally, details about the total sample size of 2000, confidence intervals, and distribution among districts and upazilas are needed for a comprehensive assessment. The distribution of the sample does not appear to align proportionally with the targeted youth population aged 15-35, and the margin of error for key statistics remains undisclosed. For a clearer understanding, SANEM should release a comprehensive report addressing these concerns.
Regarding the central issue highlighted in media coverage, SANEM aimed to gauge the youth’s perspective on the upcoming election. While a significant percentage expressed willingness to vote, a substantial portion admitted to not closely following national politics, indicating a level of apathy towards the political landscape post-July. Notably, the survey did not inquire about individual voting preferences in the next election but rather asked respondents to predict the vote distribution among political parties.
The survey results, averaging the predictions of all respondents, suggest varying percentages of votes for different parties in the upcoming election. Notably, the survey did not disclose the distribution of these predictions among respondents, leaving uncertainties about the level of consensus or diversity in views.
In essence, the survey captures the youth’s predictions on voting distribution rather than their actual voting preferences, assuming the surveyed individuals represent the broader population. Despite methodological limitations, the survey conveys insights about the perceived strength of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the enduring influence of the Awami League among young people.
The post-July 2024 era in Bangladesh marks a new chapter, with opinion polls like the one conducted by SANEM and ActionAid Bangladesh signaling a move towards data-driven decision-making. While opinion research evolves in the country, careful analysis of survey results and methodologies by the media and political analysts is essential to avoid misinterpretations.
Md Rubaiyath Sarwar is the managing director of Innovision Consulting. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own.
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