A division is surfacing within the far-right coalition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, posing a challenge to efforts to resolve the conflict in Gaza and potentially disrupting US initiatives to reshape the political dynamics of the Middle East.
Under pressure from former President Donald Trump to bring an end to the longstanding Gaza conflict, Netanyahu is encountering resistance from his ultra-nationalist allies who are opposed to the US president’s proposed resolution for Gaza. This opposition could compel Netanyahu to call for early elections.
Netanyahu has endorsed Trump’s 20-point strategy to resolve the conflict, which includes the demilitarization of Gaza and excludes any future governance role for Hamas. However, it allows for Hamas members to stay if they renounce violence and surrender their weapons.
Hamas has responded positively, indicating partial acceptance of Trump’s plan by expressing readiness to negotiate the release of hostages and participate in a “Palestinian national framework” in addressing Gaza’s future.
The notion that Hamas could continue to exist and engage in discussions regarding the Gaza plan post-hostage release has sparked outrage among Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition partners. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir vehemently opposed the idea, stating that his party would not support the revival of the terrorist organization responsible for significant harm to Israel.
The potential collapse of Netanyahu’s ruling coalition, the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, could occur if far-right ministers believe Netanyahu has made excessive concessions to end the conflict. This collapse could happen a year ahead of the scheduled election in October 2026.
While prolonging the conflict in Gaza may appease some factions, it risks alienating the families of hostages held by Palestinian militants and could further estrange the war-weary Israeli populace and Israel’s global allies.
Sustained conflict could also jeopardize Israel’s aspirations for more Arab and Muslim nations, like Saudi Arabia or Indonesia, to join the Abraham Accords, a series of US-brokered agreements normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states.
Trump has urged Israel to halt bombings in Gaza to facilitate talks on his plan, with initial indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas taking place in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh for the release of remaining hostages. Netanyahu envisions the plan starting with a hostage-prisoner exchange, followed by efforts to disarm Hamas and demilitarize Gaza.
However, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich criticized pausing attacks in Gaza as a serious error that could weaken Israel’s position in achieving its objectives. Smotrich, along with Ben-Gvir, who collectively hold 13 seats in the Knesset, have advocated for ambitious goals in Gaza, pressuring Netanyahu to take decisive actions.
Government spokesperson Shosh Bedrosian clarified that while certain bombings had ceased, there was no formal ceasefire in place. Netanyahu has portrayed the plan as a cooperative endeavor that aligns with the government’s objectives, including Hamas’ surrender and Israeli security control in Gaza.
Despite the opposition and uncertainties surrounding the plan, there is no immediate anticipation of the government collapsing. The opposition, led by Yair Lapid, has offered support to prevent such an outcome and ensure the implementation of Trump’s plan.