Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach a new peak by 2025, making it extremely challenging to limit global warming to 1.5 °C as per the Paris Agreement. The annual Global Carbon Budget report analyzes CO₂ emissions from various sources like burning fossil fuels, cement production, and land use changes such as deforestation, in relation to the climate goals set in the 2015 agreement.
A team of international scientists discovered that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are expected to increase by 1.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year. Despite the significant expansion of renewable energy technologies worldwide, this surge in emissions is driven by the escalating demand for energy, with emissions from oil, gas, and coal all on the rise, leading to a record-high of 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂.
During the COP30 climate talks in the Brazilian Amazon, experts revealed that to limit warming to 1.5 °C, there is only a remaining allowance of 170 billion tonnes of CO₂ before the threshold is breached. Pierre Friedlingstein, the lead researcher from Exeter University, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that at the current emission rate, the budget for 1.5 °C would be depleted in just four years, making it nearly unattainable.
The failure to reduce emissions is casting a shadow over COP30, with nations falling short of their climate commitments. Despite forecasts indicating a record high temperature in 2025, countries’ climate plans are lacking. Glen Peters from the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research stressed the need for collective action, stating that every nation must contribute more to combat climate change.
While China’s fossil emissions have remained relatively stable, particularly in coal, suggesting a potential shift towards renewables, policy uncertainties hinder declaring a peak in emissions for the world’s largest carbon emitter. In contrast, the US saw a significant increase in coal emissions due to higher gas prices, leading to a rise in overall emissions along with the EU. India experienced a smaller CO₂ increase, attributed to early monsoon rains and robust growth in renewable energy.
The study, published in Earth System Science Data, highlighted that 35 countries have successfully lowered emissions while growing their economies, twice the number compared to a decade ago. Despite a slight decrease in global emissions to 42.2 billion tonnes this year, uncertainties remain. Noteworthy reductions in deforestation and land use emissions, particularly in South America, have contributed to this decline, partially influenced by the alleviation of severe El Niño conditions from 2023-2024.