Bangladesh’s agricultural sector, a cornerstone of the economy and a vital source of sustenance for millions, is encountering unprecedented challenges as the climate crisis intensifies. From the rice paddies of Dinajpur to the shrimp farms in Khulna, farmers are facing increased uncertainty, prompting doubts about the reliability of current weather and climate forecasts. This situation underscores the urgent need for precise and dependable meteorological data to protect crops and ensure food security.
Although “weather” and “climate” are commonly used interchangeably, they hold distinct roles in agriculture. Weather pertains to short-term atmospheric conditions, aiding farmers in daily decisions like irrigation timing, fertilizer application, and harvest postponements due to impending storms. In contrast, climate focuses on long-term patterns spanning decades, offering projections on how rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and salinity levels could impact agriculture over the next several decades. This broader perspective guides decisions on crop selection, suitable cultivation areas, and the adoption of resilient technologies.
In a climate-vulnerable country like Bangladesh, understanding both weather and climate is not a luxury but a necessity. The key lies in effectively utilizing both to ensure agricultural sustainability.
For instance, in Rajshahi, a region experiencing increasing drought, a farmer may rely on a five-day weather forecast for immediate planning, such as scheduling irrigation or pest control activities. However, if climate projections indicate a future 15% decline in rainfall over the next two decades, persisting with water-intensive crops could pose risks. In such scenarios, climate forecasts become crucial for transitioning to drought-resistant crops, adopting water-efficient technologies, or adjusting planting schedules. Disregarding these projections could lead to unsustainable farming practices.
Similarly, in coastal areas like Satkhira and Bagerhat, where rising salinity levels are a concern, weather forecasts are essential for storm preparedness. Nonetheless, the long-term implications of sea-level rise and increasing salinity inland necessitate the use of climate models. These models recommend shifts towards salt-tolerant crops or aquaculture. Without incorporating such insights, communities risk jeopardizing their livelihoods due to gradual environmental changes.
Despite the growing significance of weather and climate data, many Bangladeshi farmers lack timely and accurate information. While the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) provides weather updates and institutions like the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) conduct climate-related research, the integration of this data into practical advisories remains limited.
There is a pressing need for a nationwide agro-meteorological advisory system that merges short-term weather forecasts with long-term climate projections. Such a system would empower farmers to make informed decisions not just for the present but also for the future. Effective communication channels, such as mobile apps, community radio, agricultural extension services, and farmer training, can facilitate the delivery of this information in accessible formats.
Bangladesh’s agricultural practices have traditionally been reactive, responding to unfolding events. However, as climate change introduces greater unpredictability, a shift towards a more resilient system that anticipates and adapts to change is imperative. This transition demands climate-smart agriculture that leverages both real-time weather updates and long-term climate forecasts. Essential interventions include promoting crop diversification based on future suitability, developing and disseminating climate-resilient seed varieties, investing in early warning systems and crop insurance, and training Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) personnel to interpret and disseminate climate data effectively. These upgrades are not optional but essential for safeguarding food security and preserving rural livelihoods.
While Bangladesh has made strides through initiatives like the National Adaptation Plan and the Delta Plan 2100, these frameworks require stronger connections to farming communities. This entails allocating resources to establish accessible climate information services, fostering collaboration among BMD, Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), BRRI, BARI, Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA), DAE, and local authorities, and embedding climate risk awareness into agricultural training programs. Investing in climate and weather literacy today can prevent significant crop losses in the future.
In an era of climate volatility, even slight deviations like a delayed monsoon or an early heatwave can erase months of hard work. Accurate forecasts, whether for the upcoming week or the next two decades, enable farmers to plan, adapt, and thrive. In Bangladesh, where agriculture is paramount, weather and climate forecasts are indispensable tools for survival. Every farmer, from the river islands of Kurigram to the coastal plains of Barishal, must anticipate not only tomorrow’s rain but also the future productivity of their fields. Ultimately, the forecast, not just the seed, will shape the harvests of generations to come.