In April 2025, the US Navy vessel USS William P Lawrence navigated the Taiwan Strait, prompting China to deploy its navy and air force for close monitoring, serving as a cautionary signal. Concurrently, Russia engaged in military exercises with Belarus while NATO bolstered its eastern flank following Finland and Sweden’s recent accession. The echoes of Operation Rising Lion linger, underscoring the prevailing trend in 2025 where nations vie rather than collaborate.
While the concept of rules and shared values shaping global dynamics has been a constant, contemporary global affairs are predominantly influenced by realism. Realism posits that countries primarily pursue power, security, and self-interest, elucidating the prevalent competition, distrust, and calculated maneuvers characterizing world events in 2025. As emerging powers ascend and alliances strengthen, realism emerges as a pivotal framework for comprehending the evolving landscape of international relations.
Realist analysis depicts the Russia-NATO tensions as a security dilemma, wherein one nation’s quest for enhanced power breeds insecurity in another, fueling a cycle of escalating apprehension and military buildup. Since the inclusion of Finland and Sweden into NATO in 2023 and 2024, Russia has not only augmented its military presence near its western borders but also intensified military exercises with Belarus and forged closer ties with China. While perceived as aggressive by the West, realism interprets Russia’s actions as strategic countermeasures within a zero-sum milieu.
Perceiving NATO’s expansion as a threat to its traditional sphere of influence and security, Russia’s military posturing is met with NATO troop deployments and military investments designed as responses to perceived Russian aggression. In the realm of realism, mutual distrust prevails as both entities possess the capability to inflict harm despite assurances to the contrary, fostering an unstable equilibrium where peace is delicate and power perpetually balanced.
The paramount rivalry between the US and China epitomizes the foremost power struggle in today’s global arena. In 2025, military tensions persist in the South China Sea, with both nations frequently showcasing their military prowess through naval and aerial displays. Beyond the military realm, competition extends to artificial intelligence, space technology, and semiconductor production, as both sides are resolute in preventing each other from gaining a strategic advantage.
According to power transition theory—a realist framework—conflict or robust competition is nearly inevitable when a rising power (such as China) endeavors to catch up with a leading power (like the US). While economic interdependence and international institutions may mitigate tensions to a degree, they do not eradicate the fundamental struggle for power. Consequently, the US-China dynamic in 2025 epitomizes a deliberate power contest propelled by survival instincts within an anarchic global system devoid of a central authority to govern the world.
Despite the climate crisis presenting a unifying global challenge, it remains entrenched in realist dynamics. US-China climate discussions have faltered amid escalating tensions over Taiwan and technology constraints, with both nations accusing each other of politicizing climate issues. Simultaneously, developing nations lament the non-fulfillment of the promised $100 billion in climate finance by affluent countries to support climate change mitigation efforts. In Europe, apprehensions regarding energy security post the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led countries like Hungary, Italy, Germany, and Poland to postpone plans for fossil fuel phase-outs. Efforts to establish equitable international climate regulations or carbon levies have stalled due to concerns that such measures could impinge on national economies. Notably, in April, China restricted the export of heavy rare earths crucial for manufacturing products like electric vehicles and wind turbines, underscoring how climate change is enmeshed in global power dynamics.
Realism underscores that in the absence of a global governing body, states prioritize survival and strategic advantage, even when addressing global threats like climate change. Consequently, climate change emerges as a novel arena for geopolitical competition.
Middle Eastern diplomacy in 2025 vividly illustrates the application of realism in global politics. The region’s geopolitics pivot on shared interests rather than shared values, exemplified by the expanding Abraham Accords and Saudi Arabia cautiously balancing relations with the US and China to safeguard against threats, particularly Iran’s escalating influence. Saudi Arabia’s procurement of weaponry from the US, Canada, Spain, and other European nations, primarily utilized in combatting Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, underscores a significant humanitarian crisis where civilian casualties mount. The transactions proceed unhindered as, through a realist lens, the selling countries garner financial benefits, diminishing the significance of humanitarian considerations.
The simmering tensions among Israel, Iran, and the US mirror the prevailing power struggle in the Middle East. Iran’s progression of its nuclear program and backing of armed factions abroad have fueled Israeli apprehensions, prompting the US to adopt overt and covert measures to defend its allies amidst diminishing influence in the region. The ensuing developments, including Israel’s initiation of Operation Rising Lion countered by Iran’s Operation True Promise 3 and the sudden US operation, underscore a complex power play resulting in casualties and upheaval, indicative