Experts are predicting that this year’s Nobel literature prize, set to be revealed on Thursday, will likely be awarded to a male author from a Western country. This forecast comes after South Korean writer Han Kang made history as the first Asian woman to win the prestigious award last year.
If the prize goes to another female author this year, it would be a groundbreaking moment as the Nobel has never been won by a woman in consecutive years. Women have been significantly underrepresented among the laureates, with only 18 out of 121 recipients since the prize’s inception in 1901.
Literary critics in Stockholm suggest that a Western male author is poised to receive the accolade this year. Potential contenders include Gerald Murnane from Australia, Mircea Cartarescu from Romania, Laszlo Krasznahorkai from Hungary, Peter Nadas, and Swiss postmodernist Christian Kracht.
According to betting sites, Murnane, Krasznahorkai, and India’s Amitav Ghosh have the lowest odds. The Swedish Academy, comprised of 18 members who determine the laureate, claims that gender, nationality, and language are not factors in their decision-making process.
Despite the Academy’s stance, critics note a pattern in the selection of laureates based on gender and nationality in previous years. Following a #MeToo scandal in 2018, the recent trend of awarding the prize to women suggests an effort to address past imbalances.
Bjorn Wiman, culture editor at Dagens Nyheter, anticipates that this year’s recipient will likely be a male author from the Anglo-Saxon, German, or French-language realm. Christian Kracht, a German postmodernist known for his exploration of pop culture and consumerism, is a favored candidate.
Australian author Gerald Murnane, whose works draw heavily from personal experiences, has also garnered attention. Murnane’s novel “The Plains” has been praised as a “bizarre masterpiece” that immerses readers in the world of Australian landowners.
Amid speculation, names like Jamaica Kincaid, Anne Carson, Raul Zurita, and Cesar Aira are frequently mentioned as potential contenders. The Academy’s secretive deliberations make it challenging to predict the outcome, as it has a history of recognizing lesser-known writers to a broader audience.
The winner of the 2025 Nobel literature prize, accompanied by a $1.2 million award, will be disclosed on Thursday at 1:00 pm (1100 GMT).