The final hours of war in Gaza could explode into intense violence as both sides try to gain leverage before an uneasy peace breaks out.
And even peacetime is unlikely to look like peace, with sporadic violence breaking out at a moment’s notice. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already said it is not the end of the war. But it will mean the gradual freeing of some 94 hostages, around 60 of them still alive and perhaps more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, some jailed for life.
It will be in three stages. In the first Israel will maintain a security presence on the border of Gaza and Egypt and 33 hostages, including female soldiers, children and the sick or injured being exchanged. Not all 33 are thought to be alive and the first three would be released immediately – whilst 30 more would be freed over six weeks.
Israeli troops will pull out of populated areas and a surge of aid will enter Gaza. On the 16th day of a ceasefire negotiations for the second and third phases will begin, according to sources. In the second phase it is believed male hostages will be released for hundreds more Palestinian prisoners.
Of the 1,000 Palestinian prisoners Israel is thought to have agreed to release overall, about 190 are serving sentences of 15 years or more. Those convicted of murder would not be released into the occupied West Bank. There would also be a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the start of a “sustainable calm.”
The third stage will involve the reconstruction of Gaza – something which could take years – and the return of any remaining hostages’ bodies. And from now until that stage begins the fighting is likely to break out at any moment and threaten any hope of permanent peace.
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