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LA wildfires: Rare ‘extreme fire weather’ warning as Santa Ana winds could spark ‘explosive growth’

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Forecasters in the US have warned of the risk of ” explosive fire growth ” as winds are due to change in California today.

One week after devastating wildfires broke out in Los Angeles, wiping out entire neighbourhoods and killing at least 24 people, there are fears that the situation could continue to escalate over the coming days. Gusty Santa Ana winds are expected to intensify this week, the National Weather Service (NSW) has said, prompting rare Red Flag Warnings over the “particularly dangerous situation” – an alert reserved for “extreme of the extreme fire weather scenarios.”

Winds blowing in from the east or north-east are set to peak today, with gusts up to 70mph (112km/h) possible. The strongest winds are expected to be north and east of LA, including parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, but they are not expected to reach the Palisades and Eaton fires, which are more than 40 miles (64 km) away.

Forecasters have said that the areas threatened by those two fires are facing winds of 30mph (48km/h) with gusts up to 50 (56km/h), which one local fire chief described as “normal”. But after the NSW warned that “extreme fire danger” would continue until Wednesday, there are fears that strong gusts could reverse progress in combating the blazes.

Red Flag Warnings cover a large part of Southern California around LA, including densely populated Thousand Oaks, Northridge and Simi Valley. These warnings mean that “warm temperatures coupled with very low humidity and strong winds are expected to combine, bringing a greater risk of fire danger.”

The NSW warned that winds could create “explosive fire growth” as it added on X, formerly called Twitter : “PDS Red Flag Warnings are for the extreme of the extreme fire weather scenarios. In other words, this setup is about as bad as it gets.” It also added people should “be prepared to evacuate” and to “avoid anything that can spark a fire.”

When asked what will be different from a week ago, when hurricane-force winds propelled multiple fires across the region that hasn’t seen rain in more than eight months, LA County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said: “We’re absolutely better prepared.” Today and tomorrow, winds are not expected to reach hurricane-force like last week, but they could ground firefighting aircraft, Mr Marrone said, warning if winds reach 70 mph, “it’s going to be very difficult to contain that fire.”

Pasadena fire chief Chad Augustin warned of “potential disastrous wind conditions” as he told the BBC : “Unfortunately, we’re going right back into red flag conditions with some potential disastrous wind conditions between now and Wednesday, with the peak winds expected to be on Tuesday. While we’re making some progress, the end is not even close yet.”

Fire officials advised residents in high-risk areas to just leave their homes – and not wait for formal evacuation orders – if they sense danger. Last week, winds in excess of 100mph (160km/h) were recorded, with low pressure on the border between the US and Mexico boosting the strength of the Santa Ana wind. That area of low pressure has now moved away and over the next few days, the winds are not expected to be as fierce as last week.

After Wednesday, lighter winds are forecast to develop, giving firefighters a longer window to contain the remaining blazes. While rain would also help the situation by returning some moisture to the ground and vegetation, currently the weather forecast shows little rainfall on the horizon.

The fires have destroyed more than 12,000 homes, cars and other structures since last week. AccuWeather’s early estimates suggest the blazes could be the nation’s costliest ever, topping $250billion (£204billion) including what’s to come in the next days. The reconstruction cost for commercial and residential properties inside areas with active fires could be $14.8billion (£12billion), according to real estate data tracker CoreLogic.

On Sunday, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said in a news conference that he had requested more National Guard troops to bolster the 400 already in the area. Following that, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced that 1,000 additional members of the National Guard would be deployed.

It comes after at least 29 people were arrested for looting in mandatory evacuation areas. Two have been caught posing as firefighters to get into the homes of evacuees and steal from there. Sheriff Luna said: “When I was out there in the Malibu area, I saw a gentleman that looked like a firefighter. And I asked him if he was okay because he was sitting down. I didn’t realise we had him in handcuffs.

“We are turning him over to LAPD because he was dressed like a fireman, and he was not. He just got caught burglarising a home. So those are issues that our front-line deputies and police officers are dealing with.”

Currently, there are 14,000 firefighters, 84 aircrafts and 1,354 fire engines in southern California, said Sheriff Luna. He added that the death toll is likely to rise as at least two dozen people were missing as of Monday. The sheriff said he understands that people are eager to return to their homes and neighbourhoods to survey the damage, but he asked for their patience. “We have people literally looking for the remains of your neighbours,” he said.

Just under 100,000 in Los Angeles County remained under evacuation orders, half the number from last week. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power warned that it may shut off power for customers in areas with high fire risk as a pre-emptive safety measure to stop more fires from starting. It said the outages may last over 48 hours. Authorities haven’t determined an official cause for any of the fires.

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