Japan’s ruling coalition disintegrated on Friday as the junior partner, Komeito, rebelled against the new hardline leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi. This move has raised doubts about Takaichi’s bid for the premiership. Takaichi, who was chosen as the LDP’s new leader in a weekend vote, needs parliamentary approval to become Japan’s first female prime minister later this month. Despite holding the largest number of seats, her party lacks a majority. The main opposition party is urging other parties to support an alternative candidate.
The breakup of the 26-year partnership between Komeito and the LDP was triggered by what Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito described as an “inadequate” explanation by the LDP regarding its handling of a long-standing political funding scandal. Saito announced that Komeito would not support Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary vote for the next prime minister, which was initially scheduled for around October 15 but may be postponed due to the recent developments. The LDP falls short of a majority in the lower house of parliament by 37 seats.
During the parliamentary vote, opposition parties will have the opportunity to nominate their own candidates for the premiership. The candidate who secures a simple majority in the initial round will be approved. If this does not happen, a run-off will be held between the top two candidates.
Following Komeito’s departure, Takaichi may attempt to form alliances with other parties, potentially including the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), known for its fiscal expansionist views. However, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party has hinted at supporting the DPP’s charismatic leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, as a challenger to Takaichi.
Takaichi’s selection as the LDP leader had initially led to a shift in market expectations, with hopes for a near-term interest rate hike diminishing, causing stock prices to rise and the yen to weaken. She is recognized for her strong endorsement of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” economic policies.
Makoto Nishida, the Secretary General of Komeito, emphasized in a press conference that Japan has entered an “era of the multi-party system” and expressed the party’s commitment to becoming a central force for centrist, reform-oriented political movements. Despite its historical dominance in post-war Japan, the LDP also holds a minority position in the less influential upper house of parliament.