An undersea volcano, located 470 km off the coast of Oregon, is expected to erupt in 2025. Scientists have hailed this advanced warning of an eruption, which is more than just a few hours ahead, as “pretty unique” and a significant achievement.

The volcano, known as Axial Seamount, shows all the signs of imminent activity. This submarine volcano, standing at 1,100 meters tall with a diameter of 2km, is situated 1,400m beneath sea level.

Over the past decade, various devices have been monitoring every rumble, shake, swell, and tilt from the volcano in real time via a seafloor cable. Geologist Mark Zumberge, from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, has described the volcano as “the most well-instrumented submarine volcano on the planet“.

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Oregon State University/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

In November, Axial’s surface swelled to the same height as before its last eruption in 2015, indicating that magma had built up underground and pressure within the volcano was increasing. Similar swelling in 2015 allowed researchers at Oregon State University to predict that year’s eruption, which they celebrated as “our best forecasting success”.

Similar activity, along with increased seismic activity, has led researchers to predict the next eruption, according to the Daily Star, reports Daily Star.

The Axial volcano, hailed as a “very promising volcano” by Valerio Acocella, a volcanologist at Roma Tre University, is under intense observation. Researchers are employing artificial intelligence to sift through earthquake data from before the 2015 eruption, hoping to find patterns that could predict future activity.

“There’s no crystal ball,” Acocella concedes, acknowledging the unpredictable nature of volcanoes. Yet, he remains optimistic about learning from each eruption, saying: “We need ideal cases to understand how volcanos work.” He also warns of the potential for unexpected behaviour, stating: “There’s always a risk that a Volcano will follow a pattern that we haven’t seen before and do something unexpected.”

Looking ahead to the anticipated 2025 event, Acocella believes it won’t revolutionize eruption prediction but will enhance understanding: “We’ll understand it better and that will help us understand other volcanoes, too.”